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Philippines 2013 Budget approved

President Aquino has signed the two-trillion peso Philippines 2013 budget (GBP 30 billion and approx. 16% of GDP) into law. Main priority areas are infrastructure development, health, education and support to the conditional cash transfers programme. Growth and increased revenue allow for extra spending while also reducing debt as a percentage of GDP. No pre-election splurge, but some in civil society still see too much discretionary spending by legislators and a lack of transparency. Overall, the Philippines 2013 budget shows the government’s credentials for strong management of the economy are likely to remain high. Moody’s indicated the possibility of an credit rating upgrade to PHL’s first investment grade.budget

Detail

The macro picture

The Philippines 2013 budget was passed on time and with little controversy. It assumes significant growth in revenues of 14%. This should be realised, although it is dependent on increased “sin taxes” (Aquino has just approved a separate bill) from alcohol and tobacco generating an additional P40 billion. The national Philippines 2013 budget assumes a 14% increase in imports, making the Philippines a larger net importer of goods. The Philippines 2013 budget also assumes a reduction in tariff revenues (in line with policy). These will lead to a 2% of GDP deficit. However, with growth likely to remain above 6%, the level of government debt will reduce as a percentage of GDP to its lowest since 2001, maintaining the government’s focus on achieving investment bond rating, something unimagined in the Philippines even a few years ago. A slightly higher inflation rate is assumed confirming central bank’s comments on allowing higher inflation to counter expected global economy headwinds.

The winners 

Social and economic services get the biggest increases in line with anti-poverty objectives and investment in infrastructure. The government will continue to invest heavily in publicly procured infrastructure, mainly on building and maintaining roads. Health and education are the other winners. Infrastructure and social service spend now account for more than a quarter of the total budget, up from when Aquino came to power.

And the rest

Half of the Philippines 2013 budget will go to government departments while a quarter will go to automatically appropriated items (mainly debt service). The final quarter will go to special purpose and unprogrammed funds. A good portion of this is uncontroversial consisting of support to state enterprises and  disaster relief funds. However, PhP436 billion (up from PhP233 billion in 2011) will be allocated to unprogrammed and special purpose funds, which includes countrywide development funds to be disbursed by individual legislators and a new fund called priority social and economic fund. The increase on 2011 is accounted for by the social and economic fund.

The money allocated to legislators has often in the past been a source of poor governance.  Many in civil society view the amount allocated as lacking in transparency, poor practice and still too high. Each member of Congress gets over £1 million of discretionary spending, a Senator nearly three times that.

Reactions from commentators

The Philippines 2013 budget has been generally well received. Some local commentators were hoping for a long-term government employment programme, arguing that employment creation has been private-sector led. But this has been resisted. Most view the budget as continuing the recent trend and priorities.

Opportunities for UK trade and investment

Infrastructure, health and education will continue to be strong growth areas, although the ability of government to spend the money allocated will continue to be variable. The growth in imported goods will also see a larger consumer-driven market in the future, with the UK well placed in the mid-priced and luxury goods sectors, entertainment and contracts in the services sector. Demand for innovative systems and high-tech infrastructures will also grow, with local firms looking for foreign partners. Defence spending will be supported through the allocation of PhP10 billion for modernisation of the armed forces.

The speed of PPP roll out will also be a significant factor for UK companies. PPPs are mostly funded outside of the national budget and have been moving slower than the government would like due to capacity issues. Mr Swire talked about this with the Finance Minister in mid December and we will continue to engage / support by sharing UK skills, training and experience.

UKTI Comment 

The Philippines 2013 budget seeks to use growth to address deep rooted poverty and development issues whilst maintaining strong financial discipline.  On 19 December Moody’s released a report on the Philippines which many local experts think suggests a possible upgrade to investment grade in the foreseeable future.  If that materialises it will be the first time that Philippines sovereign debt has ever reached investment grade, a very positive indicator.

 

This summary of the Philippines 2013 budget approval was published by UKTI.

 

 

 

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Commercial Real Estate Boom in Manila

How do we know there’s a commercial real estate boom in Manila? Just count the tower cranes in Manila.Makati1

According tho this article published in the South China Morning Post, “Tower cranes tell story of commercial real-estate boom in Manila”

Manila’s changing skyline demonstrates a city coming up in the world.

The capital of the Philippines, Manila, is in the throes of a property boom described as the best in two decades, reflecting the increasing confidence in an economy that only recently began shedding its image as one of the region’s basket cases.

Nowhere is it more obvious than at Bonifacio Global City, a commercial and residential property development on a portion of land carved out from Manila’s biggest army base.

The site was originally sold by a cash-strapped government in the mid-1990s, but building only got under way in earnest during the last six years after Ayala Land took ownership. Under the Spanish-Filipino business clan that runs Ayala, construction is now going full tilt.

“Work here is 24 hours,” said Renel Reyes, an engineer and property manager overseeing a 30-storey tower due to be completed by the year’s end.

Soon to be home to Nickel Asia and local conglomerate Aboitiz Equity Ventures, NAC Tower is just one of several tower blocks under construction.

Reyes said the state of the market was obvious to anyone who looked up.

“There are so many tower cranes, a good indicator of the construction boom right now.”

Located near Makati, the main business district that grew up in the 1970s, Bonifacio is a project in progress, but rents at 800 pesos (HK$151) per square metre are already catching up with its older, established but saturated rival.

Though rents paid in Makati have recovered almost 30 per cent in the last three years, they are still way below the peak of 1,200 pesos per square metre paid before the global financial crisis hit in 2008, data from property manager and consultancy Jones Lang La Salle Leechiu shows.

That makes renting in Manila’s business districts far cheaper than Hong Kong, Shanghai or Singapore. But then infrastructure remains a drawback, as anyone arriving at Manila’s tired old airport quickly realises.

Still, as Bonifacio lures companies tired of Makati’s cramped spaces with its sprawling parks, luxury hotel chains and Italian supercar makers have followed the money.

Lamborghini opened its first Philippine showroom, side by side with Ferrari, in Bonifacio, while Hyatt and Shangri La hotels are opening there soon.

Office space in most new buildings is snapped up long before completion. At the NAC Tower, for example, only six floors aren’t let, but Reyes said they had potential takers.

Take-up of new office space this year is set to hit a record 400,000 square metres, up as much as 25 per cent from last year, according to Jones Lang and CBRE Philippines

“Pre-leasing is back,” said Rick Santos, chairman of CBRE. “We are now experiencing the best real-estate market in the Philippines in the last 20 years.”

The primary driver of demand for office space comes from business process outsourcing (BPO), firms catering to European and American multinationals that want to cut costs.

With one of the region’s fastest growth rates – gross domestic product rose 6.1 per cent in the first half – the Philippines has shown resilience in the face of falling demand in the West and China.

Analysts say the Philippines could achieve its first investment-grade sovereign-debt credit rating in the next 12 months, about seven years after ending its debtor-nation status with the International Monetary Fund.

Strong private and public consumption has underpinned growth, while inflows of foreign capital have driven the stock market to new peaks and the peso to near five-year highs.

An anti-corruption drive launched soon after President Benigno Aquino came to power in 2010 has helped the nation’s image with foreign investors.

Low inflation, low interest rates, and a ready supply of reliable, English-proficient labour are strong draws for foreign businesses seeking to reduce costs by expanding in Southeast Asia.

The vibrancy is evident in Bonifacio, where fast-food chains and coffee shops are open round the clock, mainly for call-centre employees.

The BPO sector accounts for 80 to 90 per cent of office space rented in the Philippines, and is a major source of employment for the country’s nearly half a million new college graduates annually.

The industry is forecast to double its current employee base of more than 600,000 by 2016 as Western companies send more accounting, legal, data processing and other back-office jobs to the Philippines, fuelling sustained growth in demand for office space.

Rents are expected to stabilise in coming years as new office space totalling at least 1.3 million square metres becomes available from next year to 2015, according to Jones Lang, with little danger of property bubbles as supply is just keeping up with demand.

Outside Manila, a similar transformation is unfolding, with industrial parks, especially those close to the capital and devoted to manufacturing, drawing more foreign firms than ever before.

“What we are seeing now is the re-emergence of manufacturing, which is really good for the economy because manufacturing employs people that the BPO industry won’t,” said Lindsay Orr, the CEO of Jones Lang.

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Philippines Financial and Professional Services Sectors

The Financial and Services Sectors in the Philippines do offer opportunities for UK Companies to operate in the Philippines. There are however some foreign ownership restrictions. Nevertheless, with the 12th largest population in the World and with a high English Speaking component, there are many opportunities.professional services

UKTI, Manila has produced a summary of these sectors to assist companies considering doing business in The Philippines. Manila is obviously the Financial capital of the Philippines and most of the financial services business are located in Manila.

The Asian Development Bank is headquartered in Manila and is therefore a strong focus for financial activity in the region.

You can access the Financial and Professional services sectors report here. You will also have contact details for relevant and experienced UKTI staff based in Manila.

 

 

 

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Business Risk – Operating in the Philippines

The Philippines is one of the world’s largest English-speaking countries with the 12th highest population in the World. It is a large market that should not be ignored by UK companies looking to expand internationally.Manilanight1

 

The business risk of operating in the Philippines can be straightforward if simple and sensible steps are taken.

 

UKTI has prepared a summary of the major areas for consideration when considering and setting up an operation in the Philippines. The summary contains many useful hints and tips for business in the Philippines under major headings including:

Political and Economic

Human Rights

Bribery and Corruption

Positive developments in relation to corruption and investment

Terrorism Threat

Protective security advice

intellectual Property

Organised Crime

The report, prepared by staff based in Manila, can be accessed here.

 

 

 

 

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