Philippines 2012 Outlook

This 2012 Outlook has been provided by the Philippines Embassy in London and shows a strong developing position in many areas, with commercial opportunities appearing in a number of sectors.

• ·         Expect acceleration of public expenditures to continue well into 2012 and beyond, as well as substantial acceleration of disbursements, including those for infrastructure and capital outlay, in the coming months. 

• ·         Investment is expected to post a strong growth in 2012 despite the global economic uncertainties, as we anticipate strong investments from both public and private sectors.  The construction sector will get a boost from public construction in 2012 due to continued spending for the government’s Disbursement Acceleration Program’s projects that were carried over from the previous year, and from the faster budget execution process of government. Construction will also get a boost from the acceleration of the implementation of the Private-Public Partnership program this year.

• ·         In addition, expect that private construction will remain robust, particularly in the property sector, given the upward momentum in the office sector, and the relatively high BPO office demand in strategic areas across the country.  Also expect the residential sector to remain supported by the demand from families of overseas Filipinos.  

• ·         There is likewise an expected expansion of investments in energy; mining; low-cost housing and office buildings; and the industries in the priority areas – agribusiness, consumer durables, information technology (IT), health and wellness, transport, telecommunications, and especially tourism to contribute positively to the country’s economic growth in 2012.

• ·         The performance of the real estate sector will be complemented by the continued robust performance of the business process outsourcing industries. Meanwhile, the performance of the other services sector will benefit from the surge in tourism as we improve our infrastructure, intensify our tourism marketing campaigns, and maintain a favorable peace and order situation.

• ·         Food manufacturing will benefit from stronger consumer demand spurred by government spending, softening prices of raw materials, and better weather conditions. In the second half of 2012, the manufacturing sector is expected to post a remarkable growth as the food sector further expands, election spending provides an impetus up to the national and local elections in 2013, and the electronic industry registers higher growth.

• ·         On the expenditure-side, the resilient domestic economy will support a continued expansion in household consumption expenditure. Household consumption will be spurred by the continued tripartite efforts of the government, private employers and workers to improve the country’s labor and employment situation; a sustained inflow of overseas Filipinos remittances which has been counter-cyclical in the past; and the implementation of social protection programs.

• ·         While NEDA is optimistic that 2012 will be substantially better than 2011, it remains vigilant and continues to closely monitor external developments that continue to pose significant risk to the country’s growth.   As many analysts expect, global economic recovery might stall in 2012 mainly due to the growing concerns over Europe. The International Monetary Fund projects the Euro area will suffer a mild recession due to lingering concerns on how to appropriately and quickly restore confidence in the economy in order to support growth while at the same time addressing fiscal imbalance and providing more liquidity and monetary accommodation. Similarly, the government is also watching closely developments in the U.S. economy, whether the recovery will gain momentum or will remain fragile. Likewise, the government recognizes the risk that China could slow down or even experience a “hard landing.”